Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.108760 0.127093 0.148252 0.174635 0.206870 0.245254 0.294837
2025-10-12 0.087785 0.111138 0.140870 0.182088 0.238696 0.315131 0.428635
2025-10-19 0.071687 0.097111 0.132323 0.185959 0.267989 0.392908 0.606237
2025-10-26 0.059554 0.085674 0.124707 0.189605 0.299676 0.488694 0.862326
2025-11-02 0.048650 0.073685 0.113649 0.185496 0.319528 0.577663 1.168423
2025-11-09 0.039376 0.062303 0.101039 0.175636 0.327333 0.652657 1.512442
2025-11-16 0.033880 0.056002 0.095587 0.177451 0.359930 0.800518 2.176281
2025-11-23 0.029342 0.050455 0.090272 0.178286 0.392573 0.974862 3.142198
2025-11-30 0.026042 0.046515 0.087147 0.183114 0.438802 1.226373 4.798403
2025-12-07 0.023171 0.042838 0.083740 0.186514 0.485123 1.527561 7.363562
2025-12-14 0.020156 0.038312 0.077535 0.181275 0.505680 1.770008 10.393338
2025-12-21 0.016823 0.032565 0.067439 0.162899 0.476790 1.798628 12.236605
2025-12-28 0.015217 0.030321 0.065153 0.165966 0.526199 2.257916 20.116285
2026-01-04 0.014058 0.028856 0.064440 0.173680 0.600922 2.987423 37.276470
2026-01-11 0.012877 0.027134 0.062713 0.177930 0.668041 3.836347 68.951313
2026-01-18 0.011831 0.025551 0.061011 0.181886 0.740443 4.938082 135.357137
2026-01-25 0.010663 0.023474 0.057510 0.178376 0.775933 5.881018 241.361596
2026-02-01 0.009480 0.021177 0.052919 0.169273 0.776101 6.534576 387.179743
2026-02-08 0.008774 0.019989 0.051313 0.171264 0.845530 8.302920 903.830626
2026-02-15 0.008122 0.018844 0.049596 0.172273 0.913207 10.468749 2346.290123
2026-02-22 0.007632 0.018052 0.048805 0.177082 1.016411 13.975426 8938.987312
2026-03-01 0.007159 0.017236 0.047765 0.180496 1.117760 18.455570 47900.146140
2026-03-08 0.006574 0.016021 0.045161 0.175576 1.147848 21.728021 237798.421404